Even before General Motors' and Chrysler Group's summer 2009 bankruptcies, the U.S. auto industry was moving toward a Western European model. There, the largest automakers, Volkswagen Group, Ford, and Renault (or, sometimes Peugeot/Citroen) each have about 18 percent market share. VW leads, but none of the three dominates in the manner that GM has dominated the U.S. market for much of the last century.
GM's market dominance was so big, in fact, it didn't look to be in serious trouble until market share sank to about 25 percent, half of what it was in the 1960s and '70s, when European and Japanese automakers were minor players. GM wouldn't be making it with its current market share if it still built Pontiacs, Saturns, Hummers, and Saabs, let alone Oldsmobiles. After it announced that it would cut Pontiac in April 2009, while preparing for bankruptcy, then-CEO and president Fritz Henderson said a reconstituted GM would be able to make money even in a year with just 10 million car and light truck sales in the U.S. Though not specified, the assumption was GM needed 18-20-percent market share of that 10 million to make money.

By late last autumn, the industry was looking at a 12.9-million calendar year 2011. The top three automakers were hovering a bit closer to that 18-18-18 model. GM said it was retaining most of its old Pontiac and Saturn customers, and Ford said it was doing the same with Mercury customers a year after killing that brand. Toyota was second-largest by market share in 2009 and on its way to 18 percent when its quality reputation took a hit in '10, and Ford became resurgent. Toyota might have bounced back in '11 if not for the earthquake and tsunami. Honda fell behind Chrysler, which was turning things around and took back fourth place in U.S. market share.
Market share figures for 2008 to '11 are for the full 12 months. The shares for CY11 cover the first 10 months. We expect Honda's share to rise slightly and Toyota's to increase significantly for the last two months of the year, as the latter gets more new '12 Camrys onto dealer lots. We'll update the numbers in a couple months.